Our model enumerates all remaining group outcomes (weighted by per-match odds) to compute each team’s chance to advance and to win the group.
We estimate each match's win/draw/loss probability from FIFA rankings and team strength, enumerate every unplayed combination and weight them to compute each team's chance of advancing and of topping the group; best third-placed teams are weighted at 0.6. For reference only.
The top two of each group advance directly, plus the 8 best third-placed teams across the 12 groups — 32 teams in total.
By points, goal difference and goals scored, in that order, taking the 8 best.
